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The Real Divorce Statistics

Headline statistics frequently get stuck in people’s minds and stay there - despite more sophisticated statistical analyses subsequently proving the headlines to be false or misleading.

An example:

How many first marriages do you think will end in divorce in contemporary America?

If you estimated 50% of marriages, you would be wrong even though your answer would be what many people would say. The 1 in 2 number has been bandied about so often it has been seared in our brains, despite the fact that it is grossly inaccurate.

How does such a thing happen?

According to one source, a Census Bureau statistic (more than 20 years ago) noted that in one year 2.4 million couples married and 1.2 couples divorced. From that fact, someone looking for a headline concluded that the divorce rate was 50%, neglecting to take into account the 54 million marriages already in existence – (simple arithmetic is not the same as accurate statistical analysis). According to another source, the 50% number was never supposed to be a definitive statistic but only a prediction and projection of what would happen to marriage if the then current trends of divorce continued to escalate.

Though there has been updated news about the divorce rate (pollster Lou Harris predicts that only one out of eight marriages will end in divorce), such news is typically entombed in official reports or sparsely read articles on page 10. Hence, even if you read the article, the news is rarely imprinted on your memory the way an initial headline is.

Being aware of what the true divorce rate is, is not simply an academic exercise. That number may consciously and unconsciously influence our thoughts and feelings about making the marriage commitment.

Here now are some of the most up-to-date facts that I have culled from several sources. The divorce rate in first marriages peaked in the early 80’s. At that point, it was just a little more than 40%. Currently, it’s slightly above 30%.

More significantly for people to know, however, is that some factors dramatically change the divorce rate. Age is one of those factors. For women between 20 and 39 years of age the rate incrementally decreases – from 37% to 5%. Clearly the statistics show that the younger you marry, the greater your risk for divorce. There is, however, an interesting subset to these statistics. Women who marry in their teens have a significantly lower divorce rate (28%) than those in the 20-24 age group (37%). Why should this be so? My guess: women marrying this young are from religious or cultural groups that call for early marriage and have strong taboos against divorce.

In addition to age, education and income level are strong predictors of stable marriages. And even where you live may make a difference. Want to take a guess which state has the lowest divorce rate? The highest?

The answer: Massachusetts has the lowest, Nevada the highest.

When you know what the real divorce rate is, it seems far less likely that a successful marriage is a lucky toss of the coin. Rather, understanding statistical risk can be useful for making better decisions.

But does that mean that if you want to get married and stay married, you should move to the Bay State, let time pass, continue your education, and become more financially stable? Perhaps, but it’s not just passively doing those things that will make a difference. It’s what you actively learn and apply in those intervening years that will increase your chances of a successful marriage.

If a woman has learned how to fall in love without losing herself, it helps.

If a man has learned how to make his way in the larger world, it helps.

If a woman has learned not to rely on a man to solve all her problems, it helps.

If a man has learned to communicate his feelings without getting angry, it helps.

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